Gallup: Real U.S. Unemployment at 10.1 Percent

By Jon E. Dougherty at 7 Oct 2010

The Gallup polling firm said in a new jobs survey released Thursday that the nation's real unemployment rate is about 10.1 percent, and that the overall employment picture could be much worse than Obama administration estimates have indicated.

In its new survey Gallup said "unemployment, as measured...without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1 percent in September, up sharply from 9.3 percent in August and 8.9 percent in July."

The increase came mostly in the second half of the month, Gallup said, "and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government's unemployment report on Friday."

The survey also found that certain demographics continue to be hit harder than others.

"For example, 15.8 percent of Americans aged 18 to 29 and 13.9 percent of those with no college education were unemployed in September," said the polling service.

Moreover, Gallup pollsters believe the government's new unemployment figures, due out Friday, will underestimate the real jobless picture.

"The government's final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup's modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday's ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government's national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6 percent to 9.8 percent range," the firm said.

"...[T]he sharp increase in the unemployment rate during late September does not bode well for the economy during the fourth quarter, or for holiday sales. In this regard, it is essential that the Federal Reserve and other policymakers not be misled by Friday's jobs numbers," Gallup continued. "The jobs picture could be deteriorating more rapidly than the government's job release suggests."

(c) 2010 Newsroom America.

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