Dems Enjoy Slight Edge in 2012 Balloting: Poll

(Newsroom America) -- Voters give a slight edge Democrats in generic 2012 balloting, preferring a Democratic contender to a Republican in congressional elections next year, according to a new Gallup survey.

The poll found that registered voters would prefer Democrats 51-44 percent "if the elections for Congress were held today."

The survey was conducted Aug. 4-7, just after Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from AAA to AA+ but before this week's extreme volatility in the stock market, including a 635-point drop in the Dow Monday, Aug. 8, Gallup said.

The Democratic leads in congressional races nationally ties with similar ones held by Republicans leading up to the 2012 elections, though the party's current lead isn't as wide as it was leading into the 2006 and 2008 congressional election cycles, "each of which produced a Democratic majority in Congress," Gallup said.

"The Democrats averaged a 10-point lead over Republicans among registered voters in the year prior to the 2008 elections and an 11-point advantage leading up to the 2006 elections, with individual polls showing them ahead by as much as 23 points," said the survey.

Tea Party affiliation could also hurt potential candidates, the survey found, noting that the association carried a 2-1 negative connotation. But among Republicans, a Tea Party affiliation would either make them more likely to vote for the candidate (44 percent) or make no difference at all (42 percent).

"Independents' reactions are similar to the national average, with 25 percent more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by the Tea Party and 38 percent less likely," said the survey.

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