Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 26/2250Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 27/1621Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/1907Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1810 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Dec 071 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 071/070/070 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 007/006-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 20/15/10