Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 19/0030Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 19/0313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/2332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5787 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Dec, 21 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Dec 069 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 006/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/10/30