Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec, 20 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 17/1531Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 17/1044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 17/0339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 901 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (18 Dec, 19 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Dec 071 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 019/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 017/022-014/020-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/30 Minor Storm 25/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 55/55/45