Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 12/2340Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/1218Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 235 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Dec 072 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 15/10/10