Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 12/1545Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2334Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/1650Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 341 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (15 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Dec 071 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 011/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 25/20/15 Major-severe storm 35/15/10