Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 05/2100Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 04/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 05/0901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 365 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Dec 068 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 024/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 015/018-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/15 Minor Storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 55/35/20