Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 03/1107Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/1724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/1922Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Dec), active to major storm levels on day two (05 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (06 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Dec 070 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 032/048/018 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 022/032-029/048-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/35 Minor Storm 35/40/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/05 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 75/79/60