Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (30 Nov) and expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 28/2338Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/1136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 211 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Nov 073 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 072/071/069 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 009/010-006/006-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/10 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/15 Major-severe storm 35/20/15