Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 26/1355Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 428 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Nov, 28 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (29 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Nov 076 Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 011/015-011/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/40 Minor Storm 15/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 30/35/30 Major-severe storm 50/40/50