Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 24/2333Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 24/2235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 703 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Nov 074 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 006/005-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/30 Minor Storm 01/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/30/35 Major-severe storm 15/50/40