Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 21/1436Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 21/0234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 21/0433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 300 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (24 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Nov 073 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 074/073/072 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 007/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 023/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 015/018-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/10 Minor Storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 40/20/20