Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 19/0237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1480 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Nov 074 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 015/018-013/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/35 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/40/35