Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

By Newsroom America Feeds at 18 Nov 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 18/0506Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2355 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Nov 076 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 013/018-013/018-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 35/40/40


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