Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 16/2314Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/2252Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0859Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2332 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Nov 076 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 008/008-013/018-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/40/40 Minor Storm 05/15/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 15/35/40