Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 16/1440Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/2343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 16/0100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 886 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 Nov, 19 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Nov 073 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 013/014-007/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/25 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/15/20