Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 15/1815Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 15/1858Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/1543Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7864 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Nov 074 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 010/012-013/014-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/30 Minor Storm 05/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/30/20