Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 14/1525Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/0940Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/0420Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12790 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Nov 074 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 011/015-010/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/35 Minor Storm 15/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 30/20/30