Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 699 km/s at 08/0004Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2066 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Nov 068 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 026/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 031/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 029/040-023/032-019/026
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/35 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 55/50/45