SPC Oct 18, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 18 Oct 2017

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential today will focus across portions of the Florida Peninsula as well as over parts of western New Mexico and far west Texas. No severe storms are expected. ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal upper pattern is expected across the CONUS for the majority of the period. Some modest pattern amplification is possible after 00Z west of the Rockies as a strong shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Shortwave trough currently moving through Saskatchewan is expected to continue eastward into western Ontario while maturing. Associated surface low will take a similar path while an attendant cold front moves eastward/southeastward across the central Plains and upper Midwest. By 00Z Thursday, this cold front will likely extend from western upper MI southwestward into western KS. Thereafter, frontolytic processes, encouraged by a deepening lee trough across the northern High Plains, will lead to a weakening of the portion of the front across the central Plains. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated across much of the CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across FL as modest surface convergence occurs amidst a moist and unstable airmass. Farther west (across southwest NM), increased mid-level moisture associated with a weak shortwave trough (currently moving across Baja California) combined with modest low-level moisture and steep low-level lapse rates will support 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE during the afternoon. Lift provided by the shortwave trough, in tandem with favorable orographic circulations, will interact with this instability to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. ..Mosier/Elliott.. 10/18/2017 Read more



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