SPC Oct 18, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 18 Oct 2017

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities will be greatest across the southern Rockies, along the Pacific Northwest Coast, and over parts of Florida. ...Discussion... Dry and stable conditions will exist across much of the contiguous US Thursday though three distinct areas of the country will have some threat for thunderstorms. 1) Southern Rockies region - Several low-latitude disturbances will traverse the international border over the next few days. These features should encourage higher PW air mass to spread across northern Mexico into NM and the adjacent High Plains. As a result, convection is expected to develop across this region as instability increases ahead of short wave. Thunderstorms that form over NM will spread toward the TX South Plains during the evening aided by nocturnal increase in LLJ across this region after dark. 2) Pacific NW - Profiles are expected to cool significantly along the Pacific NW coast as a strong trough moves inland around 20/03z. Primary threat for lightning will be with post-frontal convection influenced by relatively more buoyant onshore flow. 3) FL - Upper trough will move off the FL coast early in the period and heights will rise slowly as ridge builds toward the state. Large-scale surface pattern will change little over the next few days with deep easterly flow expected to continue due to dominant surface ridge anchored over the southern Appalachians. Showers will focus along the east coast and sufficient buoyancy should exist for at least a threat for lightning with the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow.. 10/18/2017 Read more



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