SPC Mar 19, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 19 Mar 2018

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of severe winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and eastern South Carolina on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in good agreement depicting a progressive shortwave trough moving across the Southeast on Tuesday, with a midlevel speed max skirting the northern Gulf Coast and continuing across northern FL and southern during the afternoon. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to stretch from southern SC into southern GA and the eastern FL Panhandle at 18Z, progressing quickly eastward due to strong westerly flow just off the surface. In addition, a stationary front will exist across northeast SC as weak low pressure develops to the southwest. Storms are likely to move across parts of northern GA, SC, and NC overnight Monday, and this may reinforce the wedge front. However, strong southwest flow and heating should allow recovery from any morning precipitation in SC. MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg is likely ahead of the front extending into FL due to steep lapse rates aloft. Low-level lapse rates will not be very steep over much of FL, but surface based instability will still be favorable for severe storms. Several corridors of thunderstorms are forecast to develop and track northeastward across eastern SC, southeast GA and northern FL after 15Z, likely ending over the FL east coast by 00Z. Damaging winds are likely given very strong mean wind speeds, but a tornado or two are also possible with sufficient low-level shear. The existing front across SC and subsequent low track may be a favored corridor for storm enhancement. Elsewhere, elevated hail is possible north of the front into southern North Carolina due to cool temperatures aloft and favorable cloud-bearing shear profiles. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2018 Read more



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