SPC Mar 19, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 18 Mar 2018

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF SOUTHEAST TX TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AR... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with mainly hail and damaging winds are expected through tonight from Southeast Texas to the central Gulf Coast region, while an isolated hail threat is possible from part of the southern Plains to Arkansas. ...Synopsis... A compact, potent shortwave trough will advance into OK and the central Plains this forecast period with a closed low forming in the base of the trough across OK to southeast KS by 12Z. As this occurs the primary surface low will track/redevelop from southeast CO into central and northeast OK tonight to early Monday morning. An attendant cold front will advance east across the southern Plains, reaching eastern OK/TX into south TX by 12Z. The greatest severe-weather threat through tonight is expected to be from Southeast TX through southern LA to the central Gulf Coast, in vicinity of a west-east outflow boundary near the I-10 corridor. ...Southeast TX to the central Gulf Coast region... A cluster of discrete storms will advance to the east, tracking in vicinity of an aforementioned outflow boundary through southern LA. Southerly surface winds and some strengthening of southwesterly 850-mb winds in response to stronger height falls spreading into OK/KS tonight will maintain a moist and unstable environment across the slight risk area. Forcing for ascent attendant to a weak midlevel impulse/jet streak that aided storm development this afternoon in central TX will spread east across LA into the central Gulf Coast region. This combined with weak low-level warm air advection suggests convection will continue to form with eastward extent. Strong westerly 500-mb winds and strengthening west-southwesterly 850-mb winds from southern LA to southwest AL will result in strong westerly shear favoring linear structures with damaging gusts and hail the primary severe threats. ...Eastern TX/OK Panhandles through parts of OK and southern KS... A strongly forced band of thunderstorms has developed from western KS into the northern TX Panhandle per mosaic radar imagery and trends in lightning data. These storms should be mainly elevated through tonight as they track to the east and northeast across an area with a stable boundary layer. Weak instability suggests hail will be the primary threat with the stronger cells. ...South-central OK into AR... Operational-HRRR and ESRL-HRRR each suggest a short broken band of storms may develop over south-central OK (near or just east of I-35), as strong height falls spread across this region in tandem with the cold front. This activity could produce damaging winds and/or hail with storms spreading to AR toward Monday morning. ..Peters.. 03/19/2018 Read more



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