Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 550 km/s at 23/2316Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/2256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2253Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2614 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (26 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Feb 068 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 011/014-018/024-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/20 Minor Storm 15/25/05 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 50/65/20