SPC Feb 20, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 20 Feb 2018

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that a significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the central Plains and middle MS Valley region (Day 5) Saturday and Saturday night. Some deamplification of this feature is expected, but model differences persist. GFS maintains a more amplified trough with a deeper surface low suggesting the potential for a greater severe threat compared to ECMWF, UKMET and the Canadian. In either case a few severe storms might evolve in vicinity of frontal zone from east TX into the lower MS and TN Valley region as the low-level jet strengthens and shifts northeast in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Storms may be ongoing along baroclinic zone over a portion of this region, with potential to intensify within zone of modest destabilization and forcing associated with the migrating low-level jet. Limiting factors are likelihood of widespread clouds and tendency for the approaching shortwave trough to weaken with deeper forcing likely remaining northwest of warm sector. Some severe threat might linger into day 6, but overall potential should decrease later day 6 into day 7 as a cold front moves into the northern Gulf coast area. Read more



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