SPC Feb 4, 2012 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 3 Feb 2012

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX... ...SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS... AS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE FORECAST WEAK NATURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY... CONDITIONS JUST HAVE NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS LITTLE OBVIOUS TO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CHANGE APPRECIABLY TONIGHT. IF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...MORE CONCERN WOULD EXIST FOR POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION AND ORGANIZATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AS IT IS...SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW REMAINS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40+ KT ACROSS THIS REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WHICH MAY JUSTIFY MAINTAINING SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES FOR THIS EVENING. TOWARD OR SHORTLY AFTER THE 05-06Z TIME FRAME...THE 850 MB JETLET IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTER NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS MAY BE A RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD SURFACE RIDGE NOW NOSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS ...WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR REMAINING RATHER MODEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANING...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. ..KERR.. 02/04/2012 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html