SPC MD 101

MD 0101 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SWRN OK THROUGH NWRN AND A PORTION OF NCNTRL TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK THROUGH NWRN AND A PORTION OF NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 031759Z - 031930Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FROM NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX OUT FROM NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S ALLOWING FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN PRE-FRONTAL CUMULUS ALONG MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE FROM 800-1200 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY A WEAK CAP AND FURTHER DIABATIC WARMING. ONCE STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL PERSIST FROM N TX THROUGH CNTRL OK THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MAINTAIN 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..DIAL.. 02/03/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 35059784 34629707 33839697 32679809 32499944 33909912 34839872 35059784 Read more

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