Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2012 Jan 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1402 (N29W88) produced an X1/1f flare at 27/1837Z with associated Type II (est. speed 1523 km/s) and Type IV Radio Sweeps, along with an 810 pfu Tenflare. An associated CME was first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 27/1827Z. The majority of the ejecta is directed towards the STEREO A spacecraft, however, further analysis is necessary to determine potential geoeffectiveness. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on day one (28 January) with a chance for isolated M-class activity as Region 1402 rotates around the west limb. Activity is expected to be very low to low on days two and three (29-30 January). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods observed at mid-latitudes and an isolated minor storm period observed at high latitudes. The increase in activity is due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV and greater than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit were above event threshold during the period due to the X1 flare mentioned above. The greater than 10 MeV proton event, which began at 27/1905Z and reached 96 pfu at the time of this writing, is still in progress. The greater than 100 MeV proton event, which began at 27/1900Z and reached 11 pfu at the time of this writing, is also still in progress. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux value was enhanced due to the X1 flare mentioned above. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (28 January) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days two and three (29-30 January). The greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV proton events are expected to continue on day one. A more reliable end time will be possible once the peak levels are observed. III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan Class M 25/01/01 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 99/50/01 PCAF Red IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Jan 142 Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 144 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 007/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor storm 15/01/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01