Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2012 Jan 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. At 18/1912Z, an impulsive M1/1n was observed from Region 1401 (N16E27). At 18/1230Z, Region 1399 (S23E17) produced a B9 x-ray event. A slow-moving, partial-halo CME was seen lifting off the SSE limb, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1325Z. Model output indicated the potential for Earth impact beginning late on 22 January. New Region 1407 (N17E13) emerged on the disk as a B-type group. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (19 - 21 January). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decreased during the past 24 hours from a high of about 450 km/s to a low of near 375 km/s by the end of the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the majority of day one (19 January). By late on 19 January, and through day two (20 January), the field is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods. This increase in activity is due to anticipated effects from a glancing blow as a result of the 16 January CME. By day three (21 January), the field is expected return to mostly quiet levels. III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jan 148 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 150/150/155 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 144 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 006/006-007/008-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 15/20/15 Major-severe storm 10/15/10